Tuesday, January 31, 2012 

Learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

The civil service is, as we know, politically neutral. It's therefore implausible, not to mention offensive to suggest that the Forfeiture Committee was in any way lent on or obliging towards the government in deciding that Fred Goodwin should lose his knighthood. Just as David Cameron has been made to look weak and vacillating in his refusal to say Stephen Hester shouldn't be receiving a bonus (and wasn't it also curious that the day after Cameron said if Hester was to get a bonus, it should be under a million, he was awarded one of just under that figure?), here comes Queenie herself, ripping up the honour she bestowed on everyone's least favourite banker on behalf of the last government.

While we can all agree that Goodwin's continuing to hold a knighthood on the basis of "services to banking" was rather rum, the decision to strip him of it is a wonderful example of the dangers of political consensus and contemporary thinking. After all, Goodwin could not have been instrumental in the rise and then fall of the Royal Bank of Scotland had he not been encouraged and received acquiescence from those around him, whether it was from the Labour government, the Financial Services Authority, or indeed the bank's board and its shareholders. All of them signed off on the takeover of ABN Amro, believing that the bubbles in housing and credit would never burst, while not giving too much thought to what would happen should a bank become so big that bailing it out would cost tens of billions of pounds, or become so large as to be too big for some governments to even part nationalise.

Goodwin is undoubtedly primarily culpable, and his reputation as "Fred the Shred" and then his initial decision to take his £700,000 a year pension in full made him the pantomime villain of the sort that has seen him appear twice as a character in Viz, yet his failure was nothing compared to that of the entire system. As Aditya Chakrabortty writes
, the idea of rewarding CEOs extra millions on top of their basic salaries was not thought up by the boards themselves, but by academics, who wrote papers claiming that providing extra incentives achieved enhanced results; politicians and indeed most ordinary people thought this was perfectly acceptable, at least while the economy itself was growing, regardless of the yawning disparities in pay. Labour's increased spending on health and education was underpinned by the tax receipts the financial sector was providing, giving ministers no reason whatsoever to suggest that the system was unsustainable. The opposition, for their part, were suggesting slashing regulation still further, while George Osborne made it known that he was considering a flat tax.

By taking Goodwin's knighthood we are then both repeating the pattern, as there hasn't been a single politician who has dared to suggest that this is an unprecendented step (Update: not quite unprecedented, see comments), considering he hasn't been convicted of any crime, nor is he a head of state murdering his own citizens, with the FSA report into RBS admitting that Goodwin didn't break any rules in his dealings, and also implying that it was one man alone who helped to trigger the "financial crisis of 2008-9", the Cabinet Office's statement relegating everything else that brought about the worst recession since the 1930s as "other macroeconomic factors". We have it seems, like the Bourbons, learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

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Thursday, January 26, 2012 

Number crunching.

£963,000 - The bonus awarded to Stephen Hester, Royal Bank of Scotland's CEO

37 - Under the government's proposed benefits cap of £26,000, the number of families his bonus could provide the whole amount for

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009 

Are we about to become utterly fucked?

It's understandable that a lot of people are getting terribly excited about someone who isn't a Bush ascending to the presidency of the United States of America, but left behind has been a major lack of any real substantive comment on the latest bail out of the banks, or rather, as it's beginning to already look, the further throwing of money at a lost cause.

Even if you opposed the original bail out, few were so dismissive of Brown and Darling to claim that they didn't know what they were doing; quite the opposite in fact. While they may have been authoratitive then, they were left looking anything but yesterday morning. They're not helped by the fact that no one, including them, has any idea of just how much effectively providing insurance to the banks for their losses in exchange for them to return to lending is going to cost, for the simple reason that no one it seems, Brown and Darling included, still has any idea of just how much the banks have lost through the collapse of the sub-prime market. This is part of the reason why the City has took such fright and been getting out of Royal Bank of Scotland as quickly as it can - when a bank that is over 70% owned by the state is still not potentially revealing the true nature of its losses, already estimated at £28bn, the idea that RBS is in fact bankrupt and has only been propped up the taxpayer quickly gains traction.

To give an indication of just how quickly we might be moving from another bail-out to full nationalisation of most, if not all of the banks, John McFall, chairman of the Treasury select committee and regarded as close to Gordon Brown, is already calling for both RBS and Lloyds to be fully nationalised, in what could well be a softening up exercise. The implications of such a move should not be understated - taking RBS alone into the public sector would put more than a year's GDP onto the already massive and continually growing national debt. With this fast becoming an increasingly ominous prospect, there's already talk that this could result, inevitably, in a sovereign debt crisis, where the buyers of the debt refuse to take any more, leaving us to go cap in hand to the IMF and also probably the EU.

For the moment this is not yet a full-blown crisis - undoubtedly Ireland and the United States itself are in far more dire straits than we are - but the underlying cause remains the same. For all the talk from the government that this is an American problem imported here on the back of the collapse in the US housing market, it was the hubris of Brown in imagining that he had abolished bust while instituting a light-touch regulatory system which in fact turned out to be a no-touch regulatory system which allowed our own banks to get involved in the toxic loans in the first place. Undoubtedly, the main share of the blame should fall on the bankers themselves, especially the likes of "Sir" Fred Goodwin, who slashed jobs while devouring the likes of ABN Amaro in a truly disastrous predatory move. They were however encouraged by a government which had fallen completely for the mantra of neo-liberalism in the City whilst expanding the public sector too quickly. As ever, New Labour wanted results and it wanted them fast, and to be fair in certain areas it has shown - the NHS, despite the cynics, has been markedly improved. Less apparent are the advances in education, where the obsession with reform has created a gaggle of schools which to this blogger look nightmarish in their controlling tendencies, whilst failing to boost the results sufficiently to mitigate such policies.

The boast since the original bail out that the government had saved the banks has been accurate. Without the injection of funds, RBS and HBOS may well have gone bust, with all the implications that the letting of Lehman Brothers fail caused, not just here but around the world. The fear now must be that all the original bail out has succeeded in doing is postponing just that, with the state shortly to be forced to fully intervene. The jibes at the Tories that they are a do nothing party will look even hollower if it turns out that doing something was almost as bad as doing nothing. If the bank shares continue to fall tomorrow, things really might be about to get a whole lot worse.

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