Tuesday, May 11, 2010 

The Liberal moment has arrived!

Let's get the mea culpa out of the way straight off. Frankly, all of us who called for a vote for the Liberal Democrats now look more than a little silly. To be sure, it was always likely to end up this way, and indeed, we wanted a hung parliament: we just didn't really expect for Nick Clegg to jump so willingly into a coalition with the Conservatives. On any realistic measure, the policies of Labour and the Conservatives outside of economics and perhaps civil liberties are closer to each other than those of the Liberal Democrats on so many things that it seemed risible to imagine that the two parties could agree to a full-blown coalition, and yet that's now what we have. The right-wing press and politicos said vote Clegg and get Brown, and yet we've received the opposite. We saw Cameron and Clegg tearing strips off each other in the final debate, and now we have them as prime minister and deputy. Clegg urged us to shake off the shackles of old politics and vote for something new, and while we've somewhat got that, just how many Liberal Democrat supporters will be anything other than mortified by the Frankenstein's monster we now have in government?

The idea that this can possibly last for a full five years, with fixed terms thrown in as another of the concessions, is fantastical. We can't for certain completely dismiss the behaviour of the Conservatives so far, which seems to have involved throwing numerous cherished policies straight on the bonfire (or not, as argued below), such has been their desperation to return to power, itself puzzling considering how they could easily have governed with a minority and/or gone almost straight away for a second election at which they would have received a majority, but does anyone truly believe that they aren't going to go at the first completely open opportunity to try and get a majority of their own, even with this ridiculous supposed agreement which has already named the date of the next election? Do the Liberal Democrats now seriously imagine that even if they get their referendum on the alternative vote, which will in many places make safe seats even safer, that they'll be able to win it when both the Tories and almost certainly Labour will oppose it to the hilt?

If the concessions made by the Conservatives look eye-watering at first sight, then examining them from a different angle is most certainly required. A majority Conservative government might just have pushed ahead with its plans on inheritance tax, but a minority one would have risked a huge backlash at the same time as it was making what look likely to be horrendous spending cuts. It was always likely to be shelved, same as the marriage tax credit, or however recognising marriage in the tax system would have been implemented, although the Lib Dems have now said they'll abstain on that, giving it a chance of passing. As it is, IHT hasn't been completely buried, just not likely in this "parliament", while the Liberal Democrats' similarly fanciful mansion tax has been sacrificed. There isn't even it seems an agreement on the always doubtful Lib Dem policy of raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, instead simply putting something towards helping lower earners, while the "jobs tax" will not be imposed, despite the Lib Dems siding with Labour over the national insurance rise during the election campaign.

In fact, the more details announced, trickling out as I write this, the worse the deal looks for the Lib Dems. Trident will be replaced, the "value for money" simply scrutinised; there will be a cap on immigration, against all liberal instincts; spending cuts will begin this year despite the warning from the IMF that it wasn't necessary and could tip economies back into recession; and a referendum on transferring any further powers to the EU, although whether that's literally any powers we're unlikely to know. Where exactly the Conservative compromises that were "embarrassingly" being made, according to one senior Lib Dem source are, is difficult to ascertain, unless you include the five cabinet posts which are to go to the party, one of which is Clegg as deputy prime minister. Rumours are suggesting that Chris Huhne could be home secretary, which would be incredibly welcome and definitely a brake on the Tories' authoritarian instincts on crime, but I'll believe it when I see it. Can we seriously imagine the Sun welcoming an actual capital L liberal as home secretary, especially when Dominic Grieve was apparently thrust aside because of how he objected to Rebekah Brooks' (nee Wade) face about her then paper's coverage of law and order?

One of the most fascinating aspects of the deal will be just how the media responds to it. One presumes that to begin with the right-wing press will welcome it, simply because it ensures that the Conservatives are in Downing Street as they predicted and so earnestly hoped for. Once the novelty wears off though, and after they've forgotten how they previously attempted to shank Nick Clegg just like the hoody gang of their collective worst nightmares, are they really going to be happy with a coalition as potentially unwieldy and with such potential differences of opinion? How on earth can they be happy with the most pro-European of all the parties actually in power, even if they have no actual control on policy? More pertinently, they're going to be chasing their own backsides over just how much influence they will have over the government: previously they were assured of their concerns not just being noted but pursued and reacted to by a Conservative majority; now they're going to have to deal with unknown quantities also exercising power that by right is theirs! How long before the first newspaper urges the Tories to shaft the Liberals and either go it alone or call another election?

There's no doubt that this is a historic moment, but then history also tells us that past coalitions or pacts have ended badly. There's every reason to believe that this trend is not about to be bucked. The difficulty is in predicting exactly when: frankly, I can't see this lasting any more than two years, which would the best possible time for the Tories to back out, before the cuts have really started to hit home and when their support is likely to be highest. The Liberal Democrat vote is almost certainly going to be slashed in any event, and their Scottish seats especially must be in danger.

The least worst outcome, even when you weigh up the Liberal Democrats acting as a moderating influence on the Conservatives, was a Tory minority government. Yes, the coalition between the two parties seems to have delivered for now on civil liberties grounds, but that may well turn out to be the least of our worries. Can they Lib Dems really be happy, for instance, with the Tories' welfare reform proposals, which they've just signed up to? There'll no end it seems to the forcing of the sick and vulnerable into work, regardless of all the other factors concerning. Admittedly, coalition government, and it's almost certainly what we would have if we did finally get a form of PR, involves compromises and the doing of deals exactly like this one, but that usually involves parties which share more than the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives do, or at least do the surface. Key, after everything, might well be that Nick Clegg didn't so much as mention voting reform in his speech after the party accepted the deal. Perhaps, after everything, the sheer lustre of power clinched it.

For the wider left, the absorption of the Liberal Democrats into the government for however long it turns out leaves us in opposition but with more space for ideas than ever. For some of us, no longer sniping at those we are sympathetic towards, even if New Labour divorced itself so inexorably from our own values, will do us the world of good. It will also unite us far more than power ever did. To quote Bob Piper, with the caveat that I'm not going to dismiss Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats as the Ramsay MacDonald(s) of the noughties just yet:

Meantime, this is the opportunity for those of us genuinely on the left of centre of politics in this country to reconnect with the electorate, re-engage with the trade union movement, and ensure the Tories are defeated next time round, and Ramsey MacClegg and his rag, tag and bobtail quasi Tories are consigned to the dustbin of history. If we can get nearly 30% of the electorate to vote Labour at a time of financial crisis, with an unpopular government and leader, it should be a stroll in the park.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Share |

5/11/2010 10:08:00 pm | |

Monday, May 10, 2010 

The woman in a political sandwich.

It really is close to impossible not to reduce the continuing "discussions" between both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives and now the Liberal Democrats and Labour to that of two suitors fighting over the same person, so let's not even try. If we deign to portray the Lib Dems as the woman in this potential political sandwich, quite what she would see in the two desperate men for her hand is just as difficult: there's the strutting, not quite as cocksure as he might have been Conservatives, convinced of his suitability and endorsed by the public, but who has different qualities and general interests to the lady he still finds himself attracted to, and whose motives are deeply suspect; or there's Labour, who she has far more in common with, but who by comparison is far from his prime, and who has a recent past which would turn off someone who had more of a choice. This isn't to consider just whether the men themselves might yet have second thoughts, especially after behaviour which some have already called "two-timing" or "betrayal"...

Quite whether Nick Clegg used the same sort of techniques and tactics in his alleged 30 conquests as he has over the last couple of days is also impossible to know, but it's undeniable that he's played his hand as well. Not only he has succeeded in apparently getting the Conservatives to compromise both on a referendum on the Alternative Vote and on his raising of the income tax threshold to £10,000, but he's also managed to get the leader of one of the parties to resign as the very first concession on negotiations. Admittedly, Gordon Brown was going to have to relinquish his position at some point, but to do so in the "national interest" and so dramatically is one of those moments to be remembered in the years to come. I've never properly understood the loathing of Gordon Brown by some (maybe, to descend into uncomfortable honesty for a second, because I look at him and at least see something of myself) but get the feeling that he's more likely to resemble the John Major model of former prime ministers than that of the Thatchers and Blairs.

There is however something distinctly odd about all the manoeuvring going on, both because we're not used to political parties even considering working together, and also because it goes so directly against their better nature. Our political system has for so long encouraged mutual antagonism, the massive exaggeration of what have often been small differences between the parties that it's startling just how quickly all of that can be discarded when the possibility of pure, naked power is there to be grabbed. For let's not kid ourselves, this is the real reason why all three parties are finding their manifestos so malleable. Gordon Brown's sacrifice is then so that his party can potentially continue to govern; his personal motive may have been noble, but the overall one is not quite as unselfish.

As the deals on offer go, it really should be a no-brainer for the Liberal Democrats just on the issue of political reform itself: AV without a referendum from Labour, a referendum on actual proportional representation later, as opposed to just a referendum on AV from the Tories who would almost certainly oppose it in their own constituencies if not in the Commons itself. We can't though pretend that this is just about voting reform: a Labour-Liberal Democrat pact simply isn't realistic if you do even the slightest thinking about it, and a look at the Tory newspapers tomorrow will quickly reinforce that. Already the Mail and Telegraph are in full cry about coups and black days for democracy, as if the voters themselves, despite their cries, didn't in some way endorse a hung parliament. As John Reid has already elucidated, relying on the nationalists in both Wales and Scotland as both parties would to get an overall majority is a recipe for instability: both will demand to be somewhat protected from the cuts to come, further inflicting them on an England which overwhelming voted for the Conservatives. The ravages of Thatcherism and the party's penchant for testing their policies on that country first has left Scotland a wasteland for the Conservatives; Labour would face exactly the same in England, something it cannot afford to do.

The Liberal Democrats face a far worse dilemma. This could be both their greatest opportunity and their potential undoing. If they do go in for a coalition with the Tories, and they've rightly rejected the 2-year offer which Cameron initially made, which was clearly designed to leave them out to dry, and even assuming that the referendum on AV goes their way, not even close to being certain, then they're going to share the blame with the Conservatives for the savage cuts coming our way. Indeed, they've apparently given way on the cuts starting this year, against the advice of those noted lefties at the International Monetary Fund, not to mention the sainted Vince the Cable. AV might well mean not losing as many seats as they would have done should both parties find themselves forming only a one-term government, yet is such slight reform worth it to be thrown out along with the Tories, potentially for another generation?

The far better option, at least from my hardly towering vantage point, would be for them to reject both parties and let the Conservatives govern with a minority, support them on uncontroversial votes, abstain on the Queen's speech, and only vote against them on their worst excesses. This government will, in the words of Mervyn King, potentially find itself outside of power for decades, such will be the unpleasantness to come. Labour if it has any sense will spend the next five years rebuilding under its new leader, and it's already starting the process at grassroot level as shown by its performance in the local elections. It might well find itself cleaning up in 5 years' time, or even sooner. All depends now on just how much lust Clegg and his MPs have for real power, and on that score you should never rule anything in or out.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Share |

5/10/2010 11:59:00 pm | |

Friday, May 07, 2010 

The evening after the night before.

On the surface, last night's result looks bad for everyone and everything, with the one exception of the Greens and Caroline Lucas. The Conservatives, despite having everything in their favour failed to get the majority it looked for so long like they were going to cakewalk towards. For Labour, while not plummeting to the depths of 1983, they've come a distant second in the popular vote and even while they held on with mostly brilliant results in London and in some of the other major cities and town, they've been removed from almost everywhere else in England, obliterated, reduced to a rump. The Liberal Democrats have reason to be completely disconsolate: they improved their share of the vote, even if by a relatively measly 1%, yet they come away with 5 less seats.

Away from the parties, our other institutions, our media and our democracy have all taken a battering. Never has our electoral system looked so absurd, nor the union so dated. First past the post has been shown to be a relic of the two party system: it is indefensible to suggest it can continue to be the bedrock of our electoral system when a party increases its share of the popular vote yet still loses seats. Our parliamentary system deserves to be in tatters: it's equally as indefensible that the Conservatives have been denied a majority due to the modern rotten borough situation in Scotland and parts of Wales, when so much of policy in those two countries has been devolved to their parliament and their assembly respectively. The running of the election itself was in some areas a shambles, a complete joke: while the turnout differed wildly, an overall turnout of 65% is not even close to being historically high. How could people have been effectively denied the franchise through such rank incompetence when this was hardly an unprecendented event?

On the same point, 65% overall turnout is the most savage indictment of how we do politics in this country for a generation. Even when the result was the most uncertain since the 70s, when the campaign had been enlivened by the innovation of the leader's debates and when it seemed possible that a third party could dump the governing one into third place, still 35% of the electorate was either so disinterested or turned off by the campaign and what had gone on during this parliament that they abstained entirely. This is no longer simple apathy: this is clearly a sign of the contempt with which a significant minority in this country regard their representatives. The media, with the exception of the Mirror, the only paper to continue to support Labour, also look like chumps. All the screaming about how a hung parliament would be a disaster in the tabloids and yet that's exactly what the voters decided to deliver. The Sun, and especially James Murdoch and Rebekah Brooks (nee Wade) must be feeling sick at their failure to garner support for the winning party for the first time since Murdoch senior bought the paper. The Guardian and Independent meanwhile have shown just how much influence they have: precisely nil.

As much as a hung parliament was always the best possible realistic outcome, the distribution of seats has left us with the worst of all possible worlds. Neither the Conservatives in a coalition with the DUP can get a majority, nor can Labour joining forces with the Liberal Democrats in a modern pact. Nick Clegg's biggest mistake of the entire campaign was to say that the party with the largest share of the vote would have the right to make the first attempt at forming a government; as democratically sound as that is, it completely ignores the constitutional precedent and gives David Cameron and the Conservatives a huge advantage which they have gleefully grasped. For all the talk of discussions between the two parties, you only have to look at Cameron's derisory offer of just a talking shop on electoral reform to see that they're planning immediately for a second general election this year, simply going through the necessary motions. They could feasibly just get a Queen's speech/budget through parliament with DUP support, but only by dropping their plans to make cuts this year, something they also show no sign of conceding. And after all, why should they? Even if Labour and the Liberal Democrats could form a coalition which also contained all the other minor parties with the exception of the DUP, such a government has absolutely no legitimacy whatsoever in England. It could not possibly hope to govern for a full-term, and only then it would just be delaying the inevitable: a Conservative majority.

Far better would be for Gordon Brown to admit defeat now, resign and allow a new leader to start the rebuilding necessary as soon as possible. That will give the party a fighting chance in the election, whenever it comes. The alternative is clear: a Conservative majority in a second election on an even more derisory turnout, with no change in our broken electoral system. The only consolation is, as pointed out in the rather epic live blog, just how unpopular that Conservative government will be even with a majority: the cuts will be savage, with a one-term government being a distinct possibility. The next five years may be unbearably harsh on all fronts, but bowed as the left is, we are not anywhere close to having been wiped out. We have reinvented ourselves before and we will do so again, hopefully this time without the compromises which wounded us so deeply before. We have to unite, we have to fight, and we know what we have to do.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

Share |

5/07/2010 07:50:00 pm | |

Thursday, May 06, 2010 

Election live blog (possibly).

11:15. And fuck it, I'm going to get some sleep, or at least attempt to. Back later.

11:10. Sarah Teather back in, in new Brent constituency. Great result for her and the Liberal Democrats. Real shame that wasn't repeated elsewhere.

10:54. Galloway out. No surprise. Not sure what he's going to do with himself now, or rather I do; spend just as much time away from politics in this country as he always has.

10:43. Really strong speech by Nick Clegg. Disagree vehemently on Tories having the first go at forming a government when all the constitutional precedents say it's the prime minister's (and Gordon Brown remains prime minister) right to make the first attempt, but it's not going to change anything on that score, even as Ed Vaizey is currently attempting to reach out to them. Frankly that makes it even more unlikely that a Lab-Lib and others coalition is possible. Cameron can, in that horrible cliché, start measuring up Number 10's curtains.

10:20. David Steel talking absolute sense. All the leaders should leave negotiations until tomorrow and get some sleep. Don't think I'm going to do the same just yet.

09:42. Formally a hung parliament. I said it was the best possible result, and it still probably is, only I wished desperately for the Lib Dems to at least get around 80 seats. It wasn't to be. Conservative government incoming in one form or another.

09:00. Clearly Gordon Brown isn't going to concede today, but I can't see any possible way in which any sort of coalition is either credible or could ever be agreed with the Lib Dems plus the other minor parties. The Tories have not won this election, but they've come within touching distance, and will almost certainly either govern with a minority or form some kind of coalition, most likely with the DUP and maybe others if needed. As suggested below, I still think a second election is worth a bet, if you're into that sort of shenanigans: the Tories would dearly love an actual majority they could call their own, but with the press the way it is they might be able to manage without it.

The Liberal Democrats are going to blame the electoral system, and that's exactly what I would do. The opinion polls were wrong in predicting them gaining parity with Labour; the exit poll, however, was almost dead right. Nonetheless, to lose seats is a catastrophe. On the day they were squeezed, Clegg simply wasn't enough to dislodge those who were always determined to try and get a Conservative majority, and as downhearted as I personally am with such a poor overall result, perhaps we should have expected it. Every time hopes have been raised for the Liberals, whether in the guise of the SDP/Alliance or otherwise, they've been dashed on the day itself.

Labour's result isn't as terrible as it could have been: the share of the vote looks to be higher than 1983 and the longest suicide note in history. On the plus side for the party itself, only minor ministers or ex-cabinet members have lost their seats; all the big names remain. It faces opposition, but this is not even approaching the oblivion which the Tories woke up to in 1997. It needs to be remembered just how unpopular this government, whichever form it eventually takes, is likely to be: if the Tories decide to govern by consensus and follow the cuts outlined by Labour and the Liberals which amount to the levels from the 1970s, then it might be able to hang on next time. If it goes instead for the biggest cuts since the second world war, which the Institute for Fiscal Studies believes it will impose based on its costings, then absolutely anything could happen, including Greece style rage. If it insists on going ahead with raising the inheritance tax threshold, just for one example, one can only imagine how much anger that will inspire; it will make the fury over the 10p tax rate's abolition look like the proverbial tea party.

We are facing a Conservative government. There is no way to claim this shows a progressive consensus, regardless of what the added share of the vote says. The left now more than ever needs to unite, and we need to fight. We have to battle the Conservatives and what their agenda threatens to be on every single front. We can't pretend that this result was not predicted, but equally we have to take heart from the Conservatives not gaining the majority they threatened for so long. We can be proud that regardless of the overwhelming media bias in favour of the Conservatives, especially that of the Murdoch press, the Sun has not even begun to have won it; if anything, ever since that paper's endorsement the party's support has fallen. More than anything, David Cameron has not had the endorsement which he has so keenly sought. We are humbled, but we are not even close to having been humiliated.

08.00. My local result has come in, as if you care. As predicted, Conservative rout: majority of nearly 9,000 over Labour in a new seat with a technical Labour majority of around 1,500. Greens came behind UKIP and the BNP, which is rather sad, but at least my vote had I chosen to go with Labour was nowhere near making a difference. The turnout, believe it or not, actually went down by 0.6% on last time. The turnout as a whole seems all over the place, and wouldn't be surprised if overall it's only slightly up. Hardly an endorsement of a campaign or our democracy when so much has been at stake.

07:37. A thought - Labour has all but been completely wiped out in England outside of the major cities/larger towns. The Tories have made gains in Wales but have got nowhere in Scotland yet again. The question has to be - why on earth is the Tory party still so committed to the union? With Scotland fully independent, the Tories outside of huge swings like 1997's could rule England itself almost perpetually. The West Lothian question looms larger than ever.

07:12. Another Portillo moment for me personally in a night mostly devoid of them: Blairite git and former minister (I think I might have used more colourful epithets slightly too liberally earlier in the evening) Tony McNulty has lost his Harrow East seat, the Tories getting a comfortable 3,403 majority.

7:00. The gorgeous Julia Goldsworthy has just lost her seat in Cambourne and Redruth, by a heartbreakingly close 66 votes. I know I shouldn't reduce it to such terms, but there goes easily the sexiest MP of all 650. Sigh. If you were one of the more than 6,000 that voted Labour when they didn't have a chance, hold your head in shame.

To, err, less priapic matters, it won't have escaped your attention that Labour and the Liberal Democrats can't form a coalition as it stands, and it's doubtful whether they can even if they gain the support of most of the sympathetic smaller parties. Gordon Brown is constitutionally fully entitled to attempt to form a government, and is doubtless attempting to do so as I type this. Far more realistic however is the Tories either forming a coalition with the likes of the unionists in NI, or attempt to govern with their minority without an actual deal. Here's a prediction which I may end up eating: the Tories won't be able to pass an emergency budget/and or a Queen's speech unless they make major concessions on cuts this year. I think we're set for a second election, which the Conservatives will gain an easy majority in.

06:22. For those wondering about Salma Yaqoob, i.e., just me, she sadly came second with 12,240 to Labour's 16,039 in Birmingham Hall Green. The Lib Dems were third with 11,988; they really should have tactically voted for Salma there. Sure she'll be back regardless.

06:00. And to follow that, the Fuhrer himself comes absolutely nowhere in Barking. Well, to be fair, 6,600 votes for the BNP is still a massive result for them, but 24,000 for a hardly ideal Labour candidate in the form of Margaret Hodge is a superb result. Tactical voting, the Hope Not Hate campaign and hatred of the scum clearly all worked to the BNP's disadvantage.

A word on the exit poll: looks like we were all wrong, and it was right, sadly.

05:52. Caroline Lucas wins in Brighton Pavilion by just less than 2,000 votes! Best result of the evening, absolutely fucking brilliant, first ever Green MP and under FPTP. Literally just been pumping the air like an absolute moron.

05:17. Gisela Stuart has held on in Birmingham Edgbaston, which was 39th on the Tory target list, with a majority of 3.1%, an excellent result. I presume that tactical voting played a role there. The Liberal Democrats have continued to fail where they should have won had Cleggmania been real - Labour have held on in Islington South.

To sort of attempt a brief summing up - even though we're still looking at a hung parliament, this has been a disastrous night for both Labour and the Lib Dems, Labour's vote potentially below Michael Foot's 1983 share. The Lib Dem vote has held, but not increased, which is bitterly, bitterly disappointing, and the electoral system has once again meant the bankrupt continuation of two party politics. The Conservatives have not triumphed by any means, but let's be honest - they're going to almost certainly be able to govern with a minority, whether or not Brown has the first throw of the dice. We're looking at Cameron in 10 Downing Street, hung parliament or not.

04:54. Ed Balls has held on in his new seat, despite the Tories throwing everything at it in the hope of a "Portillo moment". The BNP took 3,535 there, so we have racist cunts to thank for Ed Balls staying in, which is always nice. My own personal Portillo moment however is the defenestration of Charles Clarke, one of the few Liberal Democrat gains tonight in Norwich South. Farewell sweet Safety Elephant, for you most certainly won't be missed. Another notable result is Hammersmith - the Tory candidate there was Shaun Bailey, one of the infamous Tatler group of young, happening, hip, super-sexy modern Tories - and he's lost. Hah! 78th on the Tory target list as well. John Denham has also just won, one of the few ministers to resign over Iraq war - possible leadership candidate for Labour should it come to it?

04:20. 40 minutes on and we're still no nearer to knowing for certain whether hung parliament is going to be the result, although definitely heading that way. Tories simply aren't winning enough of their target seats, with the parties other than Labour holding on most fiercely. Wales and Scotland seats especially haven't gone for them. One of the worst results so far is Evan Harris' apparent loss - one of the most decent MPs gone. Labour have just held onto Luton South, despite Margaret Moran and Esther Rantzen, who got all of 1,800 votes. Ed Balls in Normanton apparently gone to recount, much as I dislike the bastard I'd love him to hold on. Jacqui Smith has lost, as she always going to, good riddance to a despicable Blairite, regardless of her expenses.

03:40. Labour have held on in Rochdale. If the opposition couldn't win off the back of "bigotgate", then that's a poor show all round and good news for Labour. Far less good news is a Conservative triumph in Carlisle, which wasn't even on the Tory target list. Results are coming in so thick and fast now that it's difficult to keep up. The difference in Birmingham Edgbaston may be as little as 20 votes, second recount there. Very handy page is here - the Tory target seats. Nick Griffin apparently conceded defeat in Barking, although nothing official. As for the Greens, declaration in Brighton isn't expected until 5am, closer than initially thought. Dearly hope Caroline Lucas grabs it.

03:04. Piss-poor speech from Cameron, didn't even attempt to claim victory, only said Labour had "lost mandate to govern". And you haven't won the right to at the moment. Couple of good results for Tories - taking Erewash on 10% swing, Dover also. The difficulty for Labour if everything stays as it is will be claiming there's a progressive majority when their vote is down, even if not by as much as thought, and when the Liberal Democrats have done so poorly when expectations were so high. Tory press is going to be fucking savage, claims of a coup bound to made. It's going to be incredibly nasty, potentially defining politics for years to come.

02:49. Switched to ITV - coverage is so much better, just keeping it simple, telling you the results as they come in. Lib Dems have taken Eastbourne, their first gain, Chris Huhne also hanging on in his seat, against the horrible hand-picked Maria Hutchings, who declared she didn't care about asylum seekers. Birmingham Edgbaston, major target for the Tories, appears to be going to a recount. The lovely Annunziata Rees-Mogg, or Nancy Mogg as Cameron allegedly suggested she call herself, has also been beaten by the Lib Dem incumbent. Again, Tories don't seem to be taking seats they absolutely have to, Lib Dems flat-lining, Labour holding on, hung parliament looking increasingly likely.

02:25. Lembit Opik out in Montgomeryshire on a swing to the Tories of an incredible 13.2%. Opik might have been a publicity whore and turned people off, but that's immense. Along with Robinson story of the night so far, and yet more evidence of a dreadful night for the Lib Dems.

02:13. Think it needs to be pointed out just how fucking atrocious the BBC coverage is. It's not just the boat, it's the almost complete ignoring of the actual results to talk to people who are saying absolutely nothing.

02:03. This doesn't just look depressing on the Liberal Democrat front, it looks disastrous. Failed to win in Guildford, which was their number one target, with a swing to the Tories of 6%. Going to be incredibly disappointed if the pattern continues.

01:51. Sadiq Khan doesn't just hang on in Tooting, keeps a 3,000 majority. Looks like a clear example of tactical voting. Tories take Battersea, but with Labour taking a better share of the vote than predicted. Wondering out loud here - could it possibly be that Lib Dems have been prepared to vote tactically while Labour supporters haven't?

01:37. David Blunkett essentially conceding defeat. Brown despite an increased majority with no bombast whatsoever. Lewis Bastion on the Graun live-blog calling a majority for the Tories. Still don't think you can realistically do that yet - some claiming, nothing official yet, that Sadiq Khan has hung on in Tooting, Labour held Durham against a Lib Dem challenge. The real disaster of this seems so far, and yet again with the usual caveats, no sign whatsoever of the Lib Dems rising to the heights which the opinion polls suggested. After the suggestion earlier in the campaign that we might finally have something other than 2 party politics, that would be incredibly depressing.

01:12. This is way too volatile to predict yet. 9% swing in Kingswood, not a main Tory target, 2% swing to LD against Tories in Torbay, 10% swing to Tories in Putney. Those huge swings look alarming but still nothing even approaching a pattern emerging.

00:55. Peter Robinson loses his seat with a huge swing to the Alliance, that's fairly massive. Did anyone predict that? Especially awesome that a non-sectarian candidate won. On matters far more profane: just how many cunts are there on this boat on the Thames? Toby Young, Maureen Lipmann, Piers Morgan, David Starkey, any more for any more? If it wasn't for Armando Iannucci and Ian Hislop I would heartily advocate sinking the thing.

00:45. Okkkkkk, went to play some Left 4 Dead 2 and in the meantime err, nothing has happened. Result from Sunderland Central is interesting: a "wildcard" for the Tories so an almost 7,000 majority for Labour, with only a 5% swing to the Conservatives is far more in line with what both exit polls and opinion polls were saying. Best bit so far: Joan Collins saying how important the family was. She should know, she's been in so many.

23:34. 11.6% swing to the Tories in Washington and Sutherland West. That's massive, and only on a low turnout which still went up by 7%. Again, shouldn't really be extrapolating, but that's worrying on all fronts. FiveThirtyEight also live-blogging, with their alternative to uniform swing calculations.

23:01. Incidentally, unlike others, I shall be imbibing energy drinks to get through the night, while munching through an already half-empty tin of Lindt truffles. Not sickly at all. No. Oh, and the first Sunderland result tells us fuck all. That's my opinion with psephologist hat on.

22:40. If the exit poll is right, and frankly the Liberal Democrats losing seats is making it look ridiculous, Brown clearly can't hang on. The Tory press will be in absolute full cry, Nick Clegg has already said that the Tories in this position should have the first go, against constitutional tradition but never mind, and the hangers on are proclaiming the biggest swing since 1931.

The sudden Damascene like conversion to PR from Mandelson and Johnson is incredibly cynical, as if it had be scripted should the exit poll say something similar beforehand. Desperation, as much as a Lab-Lib coalition would be preferable to any form of Tory coalition.

The electoral law is also clearly an ass; how can anyone justify shutting the polling stations when there are still people queueing, as reported in Manchester and Sheffield? Legal challenges in the offing also.

Justin is also live-tweeting over at Chick Yog, and I expect to be popping into the Lib Con live chat later.

Labels: , ,

Share |

5/06/2010 10:40:00 pm | |

About

  • This is septicisle
profile

Links

Last posts

Archives

Email me
Syndicate this site (XML)
Powered by Blogger
and Blogger Templates