Wednesday, October 15, 2014 

Judge actions, not just words.

It's another of those days when you look down the headlines and think, is there really nothing else going on in the world than outrages about who said what to whom, and arguments over whether the threats of one side are more reprehensible than their opponents'?  Well, admittedly, there is, it's just the other big story continues to be Ebola, which is still failing miserably to gain a foothold in the West, whereas it continues to ravage West Africa, killing poor black people, who aren't quite as important.  Also we already seem bored about the siege of Kobani, for similar reasons.

We come then to Lord Freud's comments about disabled people and the minimum wage at a fringe meeting at the Conservative party conference.  If you completely ignore the context in which he was speaking, then yes, they really are as bad as they look on the surface.  Minister says some disabled people aren't worth the minimum wage!  He must resign forthwith!  Look closer however, and it becomes apparent he was responding to a question from a Tory councillor who related an anecdote about a person who wanted to work but at the same time found it difficult to do so and keep the same entitlement to benefits.  The solution David Scott found was to set him up as a company director, meaning he could do some gardening, get paid for it and not be penalised for doing so.

The conversation is admittedly not conducted in language which everyone would use: Scott talks of the "mentally damaged" not "being worth the minimum wage" and goes on to speak of "them" in a more than slightly patronising, if not outright offensive way.  He is though describing the contradiction between wanting to help the sick and disabled either back into work or to be able to work, and how the system currently immediately ends support once it's deemed someone's capable of holding down a job.  Freud in response mentions universal credit, which to a certain extent is meant to be able to adapt to fluctuations in the number of hours someone works, then agrees with Scott on "there is a small, there is a group ... where actually they're not worth the full wage".

How far Freud is agreeing with Scott on his overall point and just repeating his words is obviously open to interpretation.  He has since apologised on precisely these grounds, saying he shouldn't have accepted the "premise of the question", while making clear the disabled should "without exception" receive the minimum wage.  Certainly, if Freud really does believe a group, however small isn't worth the full wage he can't remain in his position.

Always you should consider a person, or in this instance government's deeds alongside their words.  David Cameron, reasonably enough, said he would take no lectures on looking after disabled people; perhaps though he should take some responsibility for the coalition's woeful record on the work capability assessment and how Iain Duncan Smith insisted everyone needed to go through the system again regardless.  That's not to forget the botched introduction of the personal independence payment system, still causing misery, the closing of more of the Reemploy factories or the impact the "spare room subsidy" has had on the vulnerable.  Also needing to be factored in is how many disabled people have reported feeling under suspicion, such has been the change in mood towards anyone who might be claiming benefits.  The coalition can't take the blame for all the anti-scrounger rhetoric, not least as Labour first encouraged it while in power, but it picked up where they left off.  On your works ye shall be judged, and the Tories and indeed the nice, caring Lib Dems must be.  Harshly.

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Tuesday, December 10, 2013 

Iain Duncan Smith: a credit to the coalition.

It must be great being Iain Duncan Smith.  After all, when you've already hit rock bottom, as he did following his defenestration as Tory leader barely 2 years after being elected to the position, the only way is up (baby).  Partly thanks to on-going guilt within the Conservatives over his treatment, his overthrow hardly moving the party on, partly due to how despite Cameron's initial attempts to soften the party it's since shifted further to the right and closer to IDS politically, and partly due to how the media almost at large has decided the welfare state must be slashed back, it doesn't seem to matter how hopeless or mendacious he is as work and pensions secretary, nothing seems to stick.  The worst that can be said is he was supposedly described as "not being clever enough" by George Osborne, which must be a bit like being called overweight by Eric Pickles.

Any other minister who had helmed such a catastrophe as the introduction of universal credit would have been sacked or demoted long ago, while at the very least the press would have been calling for their head.  By the standards of the NHS programme for IT, the IT fiasco to end them all, as yet UC hasn't cost the taxpayer billions.  Nonetheless, as Duncan Smith was forced to admit yesterday before the work and pensions committee, £41m has so far been written off as wasted due to the original software for the system being fatally flawed, while a further £91m has been written down as it covers the interim system to be used only for the next 5 years.  The National Audit Office in its second report on universal credit also points out it's not guaranteed the replacement software will either work, or be developed quickly enough to reach IDS's previous deadline of 2017.

Some of the justifications for how this state of affairs was reached were almost as eye-watering as the figures themselves.  Mike Driver, finance director general at the DWP told the committee that "this level of write-off in the software industry was not unusual for a project of this kind".  Perhaps it isn't when it comes to massive public projects, where it seems the money taps are never turned off regardless of how useless the contractor turns out to be, but elsewhere in the industry the writing off of £41m would result in some major firms going bust.

The massive waste might be easier to take if IDS and others at the DWP showed even the slightest smidgen of humility about the whole process, yet the secretary of state has blustered and bulldozed his way through even the meekest criticism of the failings at the department.  He's blamed civil servants, insisted time and again that the project was on time and on budget, and then when he finally has to admit that at the very least 700,000 claimants still aren't going to be on UC come the end of 2017, he announces it on the morning of the autumn statement, completely burying it.  He further lucked out by choosing the day of the storm surge and the passing of Mandela, so his embarrassment went almost entirely unnoticed.

Even if it is just £41m that has gone down the tubes and there are no further foul-ups, it's worth considering how that money could have alleviated some of the other problems the coalition's welfare reforms have created.  Ed Balls (yes, I know) thinks the bedroom tax is going to raise hardly anything, so it could have gone towards filling the hole of repealing that self-defeating policy.  Despite all the nonsense, the autumn statement also revealed that only 25,500 households have had their benefits capped at £26,000, way below the near 70,000 it was expected to hit, further reducing the already small amount it was projected to save.  This naturally hasn't stopped the DWP from sending out press releases to friendly newspapers pointing out how 50 families were receiving the equivalent of £70,000 a year in benefits, without making clear that a substantial part of that money was going straight into the hands of landlords via housing benefit.

Then again, the cap never was about saving money.  It was about sending a message, while ignoring the often temporary exceptional circumstances which those receiving such large amounts had found themselves in.  IDS's reign at the DWP has been based around that concept: talking tough and winning the support of those who love nothing better than to play spot the scrounger, while in the background the reforms either haven't worked or were never going to.  It's why 400,000 have been sanctioned by the Jobcentre in the last year, to make up for the failings elsewhere, with repeated reports of pressure being put on staff to issue them for either imaginary or the slightest infractions.  At some point IDS's luck is going to run out and he's going to once again plummet into the abyss, but it's anyone's guess when those currently backing him will realise just how useless he's been second time around.

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Thursday, September 05, 2013 

The model of a charmless man.

Back in the deep mists of time (or eleven years ago, as it was, a period we seem to be returning to a lot lately) Iain Duncan Smith asked his party not to underestimate the determination of a quiet man.  The Tories responded by getting rid of him as leader a year later, turning instead to the talents of a man described by Ann Widdecombe, of all people, as having something of the night about him.  Suitably chastened by his experience, Duncan Smith went off and launched the Centre for Social Justice, having been deeply troubled by a visit as leader to the Easterhouse estate.

Flash forward a decade and rather than the quiet man we have the man who is never wrong.  Whether it's using statistics in the most misleading fashion imaginable, justifying himself on the basis that he "believes" he's right, or as seen today when putting all the blame for the problems with the roll-out of Universal Credit on faceless civil servants, his hubris seems to know no bounds.  Unsurprisingly, one of the main findings of the National Audit Office's study into the scheme found that there was a "fortress" culture, where only good news circulated, and those involved felt they couldn't raise concerns.  The main fault however was that the plan was far too ambitious in the first place: Duncan Smith and his department wanted all new claimants to be put on UC starting this October, and continued to claim they would be until the full scale of the chaos within the DWP became clear a few months ago.  As Liam Byrne argued in the Commons, the level of chicanery involved is quite something even for a government department struggling with IT systems: IDS claimed back in March that UC was proceeding as planned despite the programme having undergone a "reset" just a month before.

Nor is IDS even prepared to accept that the timetable for full implementation, scheduled for 2017, still might not be met, despite the NAO heavily hinting this will be the case.  Rather, just as sophistry has been repeatedly employed to claim the Olympics came in under budget despite the fact they cost far more than the original estimate as presented at the time, so now IDS claims UC will be "delivered" as planned and on budget.  Appropriately, the same man who helmed the "under budget" handover of the Olympic Park is now the one in charge of the scheme.

Most agree that in principle, UC has the potential to simplify the benefits system.  Far less clear is whether it will make work pay as the coalition claims.  If anything, it looks likely to make life even more miserable for those whom can only work part-time, or who can't get more hours, as a new conditionality regime is to be implemented alongside it.  With ever more people being pushed onto zero hours contracts, the aim appears not to be to help but to dismantle Gordon Brown's hated tax credits step by step.

Similarly to how Michael Gove is protected from most criticism due to his former life as journalist, IDS enjoys such overwhelming support from the right-wing press for his policies, for which see the Mail's preference for prejudice over facts that he can continue claiming black is in fact white.  Indeed, when the media class as a whole seems to have decided that something must be done about "benefits culture", as confirmed by Channel 4's fatuously premised Benefits Britain 1949, the cover is there for failure on a grand scale, regardless of the damage being done to some of the most vulnerable.

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Monday, July 15, 2013 

Well, you can prove anything with facts.

Usually, it's in opposition that politicians have the most opportunity to mislead with statistics.  The Tories repeatedly claimed that violent crime had increased massively under Labour, disregarding the fact that they were comparing statistics that err, couldn't be in real sense as the recording method had been changed so drastically, from the police deciding what was a violent crime to the victim saying whether or not they felt the incident they had been involved in was violent.  Labour, meanwhile, were repeatedly accused of fiddling statistics, often precisely because the change in recording methods meant that the old statistics weren't comparable.  Now the Tories are in power they naturally never miss a chance to trump how crime continues to fall under their watch, as though they had always recognised it had done so under Labour's stewardship.

The coalition has succeeded though where Labour failed in misleading with statistics, if only down to how it doesn't seem that anyone's prepared to stand up for benefit claimants.  Despite being criticised by the head of the UK Statistics Authority when he last claimed that 8,000 of those told they were likely to be hit by the benefit cap had suddenly found work, when as Declan Gaffney and Jonathan Portes pointed out the document his remarks were based on said that the figures couldn't be used in this way, Iain Duncan Smith today upped the number further to 12,000.  Things like facts don't matter to IDS it seems, as long as he has "a belief" that he's the one in the right.  Besides, we can't "disprove" that he's wrong in his belief, despite the fact that you "cannot absolutely prove" the connection between the introduction of the benefit cap and the number who would have been affected finding work.

The BBC for their part are reporting IDS's assertion as fact, not mentioning in their piece that he was previously told not to make such claims.  Benefit cap 'encourages job seekers' is their headline, the only indication that they're not swallowing the line from the DWP completely being those quotation marks.  Coming as it does on the same day as a report suggests that those earning under £22,000 a year are finding it more and more difficult to afford private rented accommodation, you might have thought the BBC would have looked into the DWP's claims more deeply.

It seems instead that when it comes to a policy that is popular, despite the fact it's estimated the cap will save a relatively minor £110m in its first year when around £95bn is currently paid out in benefits to those of working age, that the usual critical faculties don't apply.  Indeed, they don't seem to come into play at all when it comes to ministers commenting on their anti-scrounger policies.  Quite why the media takes Grant Shapps, aka Michael Green seriously at all is a mystery, let alone when he claimed that hundreds of thousands were dropping their claims for ESA rather than go through the work capability assessment, completely ignoring the natural churn between applying or being moved onto the new benefit and the WCA being carried out.

Little wonder then that as we saw last week, the public have hugely inflated notions of the number cheating the system as well as the amounts spent on out of work benefits.  If the media aren't prepared to take on ministers when they at best mislead and worst outright lie, something they used to get highly excised about, what hope is there of those outside the politics bubble having an accurate picture of the state?

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